Anti-Dumping on Low-Cost Chinese Imports: What EU Businesses Need to Know in 2026

The EU takes a tougher stance on Chinese Imports

The European Union is preparing a more aggressive trade policy towards China as concerns grow over Chinese overcapacity and the impact of low-cost imports on European industries. According to recent discussions within the European Commission, officials believe that excessive Chinese production is placing significant pressure on European manufacturers and contributing to industrial decline across several sectors.

As a result, the EU is considering stronger trade defence measures, including increased use of safeguard measures and anti-dumping investigations to protect European industries from unfair competition.

What is Anti-Dumping?

Anti-dumping measures are trade defence tools used when imported goods are sold into the EU market at prices below their normal market value.

In simple terms, dumping occurs when a foreign producer sells products in Europe at artificially low prices, often below production costs or below the price charged in its domestic market.

The purpose of anti-dumping duties is to – 

• Protect EU manufacturers from unfair competition
• Prevent market distortion
• Support jobs and industrial investment within Europe
• Ensure a level playing field for businesses

When dumping is proven, the EU can impose additional duties on imported products, increasing their cost and reducing the unfair price advantage.

Why is China under increased scrutiny?

European policymakers have become increasingly concerned about what some are calling a “new China shock” – a surge of low-cost exports driven by significant industrial overcapacity in China. European Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič recently warned of growing pressure on EU industries and outlined plans for stronger protective measures.

Several sectors have already been identified as vulnerable. The concern is that heavily subsidised or excess production capacity allows Chinese exporters to flood international markets with products at prices European manufacturers cannot realistically compete with.

Recent Developments: Growing Scrutiny of Chinese Supply Chains

Recent international reporting highlights how concerns around Chinese exports are evolving beyond pricing and anti-dumping investigations.

An article published by Asahi Shimbun’s Asia & Japan Watch examines growing concerns about Chinese products being routed through third countries before entering Western markets. The report highlights increased scrutiny around supply chains, country of origin declarations, and the potential circumvention of trade measures.

Source: Asahi Shimbun – Asia & Japan Watch: Growing concerns over Chinese supply chains and trade circumvention

https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/16648375

For importers, the key takeaway is that customs authorities are paying closer attention not only to product pricing, but also to origin verification, supply chain transparency, and compliance with trade regulations.

This reinforces a broader trend across the EU, where customs compliance is increasingly linked to trade defence measures, CBAM obligations, due diligence requirements, and supply chain risk management. Businesses that understand where products originate, how they are processed, and how origin is determined will be better positioned to manage future regulatory scrutiny.

The Rise of the “New China Shock”

Many economists are now referring to a “New China Shock.”

The original China Shock describes the impact that Chinese manufacturing growth had on Western industries during the early 2000s.

The current concern is similar but broader.

Today’s challenge involves sectors such as:

• Electric vehicles
• Solar technology
• Battery manufacturing
• Steel products
• Machinery
• Chemicals
• Fertilisers
• Industrial equipment

European policymakers fear that without intervention, key strategic industries could experience long-term decline.

Which Products are most at Risk?

Steel and Metal Products

Historically one of the most heavily investigated sectors.

Examples include:

• Steel coils
• Pipes
• Fasteners
• Aluminium products
• Construction materials

Chemicals

The EU has increasingly focused on chemical imports where domestic manufacturers claim injury from unfair competition.

Machinery

Industrial machinery and components have become a growing area of concern due to Chinese manufacturing expansion.

Solar and Renewable Energy Products

Solar panels and related equipment have been the subject of trade disputes for years.

Battery Components

As Europe seeks to build its own battery manufacturing industry, scrutiny of imported battery products continues to increase.

What does this mean for importers?

Many businesses currently benefit from sourcing lower-cost goods from China. However, increasing anti-dumping investigations and safeguard measures could significantly impact import costs.

Importers may face – 

Higher Import Duties

Additional anti-dumping duties can substantially increase landed costs.

Supply Chain Disruption

The EU is considering measures that may encourage or require greater supplier diversification in critical sectors.

Increased Customs Scrutiny

Products from targeted sectors may be subject to greater compliance checks and documentation requirements.

Reduced Cost Predictability
Importers relying heavily on Chinese suppliers may experience pricing volatility as new measures are introduced.

Case Study: How Trade Defence Measures Can Change a Business Overnight

Imagine an Irish construction supplier importing steel fixings and fabricated metal components from China for use in commercial building projects across Ireland.

For years, the business has sourced products from a trusted Chinese manufacturer, benefiting from competitive pricing and reliable supply. The lower purchase cost allows the company to remain competitive when bidding for large-scale construction contracts.

In January, the company secured several projects worth €3 million based on existing supplier prices and projected import costs.

Six months later, the European Commission concludes an anti-dumping investigation into the product category and introduces a 25% anti-dumping duty on imports from China.

The impact is immediate.

The company imports approximately €1 million worth of products annually. The new duty increases costs by €250,000 per year.

Unfortunately, the business has already signed fixed-price contracts with customers and cannot immediately recover these additional costs through higher selling prices.

Management now faces several difficult decisions – 

• Absorb the additional costs and accept significantly reduced profit margins.
• Attempt to renegotiate contracts with customers.
• Seek alternative suppliers in other countries.
• Increase prices for future projects.
• Delay investment plans to preserve cash flow.

At the same time, the procurement team must assess whether similar risks exist elsewhere in the supply chain. Products that once appeared to be the lowest-cost option may no longer offer the best value once trade defence measures are taken into account.

This example demonstrates why anti-dumping duties are no longer simply a customs issue. They can directly influence profitability, pricing strategies, supplier relationships, investment decisions, and overall business competitiveness.

For many businesses, understanding potential trade defence exposure before it impacts import costs can be just as important as managing customs compliance itself.

Why Should Irish Businesses Pay Attention?

While the case study above is hypothetical, the underlying risks are very real for many Irish businesses that rely on international supply chains.

Whether importing products directly from China or purchasing goods that contain Chinese-made components, organisations across Ireland may be exposed to the effects of future anti-dumping measures and trade defence actions.

Many Irish businesses rely on imported raw materials, industrial components, machinery, and finished products sourced directly or indirectly from China. Even where imports are not purchased from Chinese suppliers directly, products often pass through complex global supply chains that remain heavily dependent on Chinese manufacturing.

As a result, any increase in EU trade defence measures, including anti-dumping duties, safeguard actions, or other import restrictions, can have a ripple effect throughout the Irish economy.

Potential impacts may include – 

• Increased costs for construction materials and infrastructure projects
• Higher manufacturing and production expenses
• Rising costs for engineering equipment and industrial components
• Greater pressure on agricultural and fertiliser supply chains
• Increased prices for packaging and consumer goods
• Higher costs for renewable energy projects relying on imported equipment

For procurement and supply chain teams, the challenge extends beyond simply paying additional duties. Businesses may face supplier disruptions, reduced product availability, longer lead times, and increased pressure to identify alternative sourcing options.

There may also be a direct impact on competitiveness. Organisations operating on fixed-price contracts or tight margins could find it difficult to absorb unexpected increases in import costs, particularly where anti-dumping duties are introduced with little notice.

In addition, businesses are already adapting to a growing range of compliance obligations, including CBAM, sustainability reporting requirements, customs controls, and supply chain due diligence expectations. The introduction of further trade defence measures adds another layer of complexity to import planning and cost management.

For Irish businesses, understanding anti-dumping developments is no longer simply a customs or compliance issue. It is increasingly becoming a strategic business consideration that can influence procurement decisions, supplier relationships, pricing strategies, and long-term investment planning.

Businesses that proactively assess their exposure today will be better positioned to protect margins, maintain supply chain resilience, and respond effectively to future regulatory changes.

Example: How Anti-Dumping Duties Can Affect Margins

Imagine an importer purchases €500,000 worth of steel products annually from China.

Current Cost Structure

• Product Cost: €500,000
• Freight & Customs Costs: €50,000
• Total Landed Cost: €550,000

If the EU introduces a 25% anti-dumping duty on those products, the importer could face:

• Additional Anti-Dumping Duty: €125,000
• New Landed Cost: €675,000

At first glance, an additional €125,000 may simply appear to be another business expense. However, the real impact is often far greater.

If the importer has already agreed fixed-price contracts with customers, they may be unable to pass these additional costs on immediately. This means the duty may have to be absorbed directly by the business, reducing profit margins and affecting cash flow.

For example, if the company was expecting to generate a profit of €150,000 from these imports over the course of a year, an unexpected anti-dumping duty of €125,000 could reduce that profit to just €25,000. In some cases, businesses may even find previously profitable product lines becoming loss-making overnight.

There may also be wider commercial consequences. Higher import costs can force organisations to increase selling prices, potentially making them less competitive than rivals sourcing from alternative countries or domestic suppliers. Procurement teams may need to identify new suppliers, renegotiate contracts, or redesign sourcing strategies to protect margins.

The challenge becomes even greater when anti-dumping duties are combined with other import-related costs such as customs duties, freight increases, inflationary pressures, or CBAM certificate obligations. What initially appears to be a modest duty can quickly develop into a significant financial burden affecting profitability, pricing, and long-term business planning.

This example highlights why businesses should not view anti-dumping measures as purely a customs issue. They can have a direct impact on commercial performance, customer relationships, procurement decisions, and overall competitiveness within the EU market.

How Anti-Dumping Investigations Work? 

Many businesses are unaware of how anti-dumping investigations actually begin.

Typically, the process starts when EU manufacturers submit evidence suggesting:

• Imported goods are being dumped
• The domestic industry is suffering harm

The European Commission then investigates several factors:

Export Prices

What price are goods being sold for in Europe?

Domestic Market Prices

What price are similar goods sold for in the exporting country?

Cost Structures

What are the actual production costs?

Market Impact

Has the domestic industry suffered:

• Reduced profits?
• Lower sales?
• Job losses?
• Factory closures?

If evidence supports the complaint, anti-dumping duties may be introduced.

The Growing Use of Safeguard Measures

In addition to anti-dumping actions, the EU is also considering broader safeguard measures.

According to discussions within the European Commission, safeguard measures may become an increasingly important tool for sectors experiencing severe pressure from Chinese overcapacity.

Safeguards differ from anti-dumping duties because they:

• Can be implemented more quickly
• Apply more broadly
• Do not always require proof of dumping

For importers, this means trade restrictions could emerge faster than in previous years.

The Financial Impact on Importers

Many businesses focus only on supplier pricing when making sourcing decisions.

However, trade defence measures can rapidly alter the economics of importing.

Consider a company importing €1 million worth of industrial products annually.

A new anti-dumping duty of 30% could add:

€300,000 in additional costs per year.

Businesses that fail to monitor trade investigations may find themselves unexpectedly facing:

• Reduced Margins
• Contract Disputes
• Pricing Challenges
• Supply Chain Disruption

Procurement Teams Need a New Strategy

Historically, procurement teams focused on three main criteria:

• Cost
• Quality
• Delivery

Today, trade compliance must become a fourth pillar.

Procurement decisions should now include:

Country Risk Assessment

How exposed is the supplier’s country to trade defence actions?

Supplier Diversification

Can alternative suppliers be identified?

Trade Policy Monitoring

Could future investigations impact costs?

Contract Flexibility

Do contracts allow pricing adjustments if duties increase?

Companies that incorporate these considerations into sourcing strategies will be far more resilient.

Anti-Dumping and Supply Chain Resilience

The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the risks associated with concentrated supply chains.

The same lesson applies to trade defence.

Businesses heavily dependent on a single country face increased exposure to:

• Political risks
• Regulatory changes
• Tariff increases
• Trade disputes

Many organisations are now pursuing – 

• Nearshoring
• Friend-shoring
• Multi-country sourcing
• Strategic inventory planning

These approaches help reduce vulnerability to sudden regulatory changes.

How is this different from CBAM?

Many companies are already adapting to the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which places a carbon cost on certain imported goods.

Anti-dumping measures and CBAM are separate mechanisms – 

Businesses importing products from China may eventually face both CBAM obligations and anti-dumping duties, depending on the product category.

What Happens Next?

The European Commission is expected to continue evaluating sectors affected by Chinese overcapacity and may introduce additional trade defence measures over the coming months. Discussions among EU Member States will play a significant role in determining how aggressive future policies become.

Businesses should not assume that current import costs will remain unchanged. Organisations that regularly import goods from China should monitor developments closely and begin assessing potential exposure before new measures are implemented.

Anti-Dumping and CBAM: The Double Compliance Challenge

For many importers, anti-dumping duties may not be the only additional cost. Companies importing products such as steel, aluminium and fertilisers may face both anti-dumping measures and CBAM obligations simultaneously. 

What should businesses do now?

Organisations importing from China should – 

• Review product classifications and customs codes
• Monitor existing and proposed anti-dumping investigations
• Assess exposure to Chinese suppliers
• Explore alternative sourcing options where practical
• Understand how anti-dumping duties could affect landed costs
• Incorporate trade defence risks into procurement planning
• Stay informed about future EU trade policy developments

What Importers Should Be Doing Right Now

Businesses do not need to wait for new regulations before taking action.

A proactive approach should include:

Reviewing Import Data

Identify products sourced from China.

Assessing Exposure

Determine which products may fall within vulnerable sectors.

Monitoring Investigations

Track ongoing EU anti-dumping and safeguard investigations.

Evaluating Alternative Suppliers

Consider suppliers from:

• Türkiye
• India
• Vietnam
• Malaysia
• Thailand
• Mexico

Updating Cost Models

Include potential anti-dumping duties in financial planning.

Training Internal Teams

Ensure procurement, customs and finance teams understand trade defence risks.

Looking Ahead

The European Commission has made it clear that trade relations with China are entering a new phase. While the EU continues to favour “de-risking rather than decoupling,” policymakers are signalling a stronger willingness to intervene where low-cost imports threaten European industries.

For importers, manufacturers, and supply chain professionals, understanding anti-dumping measures is becoming just as important as understanding customs compliance and CBAM obligations.

Businesses that proactively assess their exposure today will be better positioned to manage future trade costs, supplier risks, and regulatory changes.

Concerned About Anti-Dumping Duties, CBAM Costs or Import Compliance?

As EU trade policy continues to evolve, businesses need a clear understanding of how anti-dumping measures, safeguard actions and carbon border taxes could affect import costs and supply chains.

Export Edge helps businesses – 

• Understand anti-dumping and trade defence measures
• Assess import cost exposure
• Navigate CBAM compliance requirements
• Improve customs and trade compliance processes
• Build more resilient sourcing strategies

Whether you’re importing steel, machinery, chemicals, fertilisers or other industrial products, our team can help you understand the risks and opportunities arising from changing EU trade regulations.

Contact Export Edge today to discuss your import compliance requirements.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is an anti-dumping duty?

An anti-dumping duty is an additional customs charge imposed on imported goods that are found to be sold below their fair market value, helping to protect domestic industries from unfair competition.

Does anti-dumping apply to all Chinese imports?

No. Anti-dumping measures are product-specific and only apply to goods that have been investigated and found to cause injury to domestic industry.

Who pays anti-dumping duties?

The importer is generally responsible for paying any applicable anti-dumping duties when the goods enter the EU.

How is anti-dumping different from CBAM?

Anti-dumping measures address unfair pricing practices, while CBAM addresses carbon emissions associated with imported goods. Both can increase the cost of importing into the EU, but for different reasons.

Can anti-dumping duties change over time?

Yes. Duties may be introduced, amended, extended, reviewed or removed depending on market conditions and the outcome of future investigations.

How can businesses prepare for anti-dumping measures?

Businesses should monitor trade investigations, review supplier exposure, assess potential landed-cost impacts and consider alternative sourcing strategies where appropriate.